The following spring, Ken announced that six orcas failed to return with their families to Puget Sound and were presumed dead. That was the greatest death toll for any year to that point.
“They may have had a lean period sometime in the winter,” Ken told me. “We know they had gone down to California. They may have been on a desperate run to find food, and the energetic cost may have been more than they could afford.”
Kelley said everyone involved with the whales was feeling the loss. “They are, on the one hand, the subject of our scientific study,” he said. “But, individually speaking, we’re losing our friends.”
Added Ken at the time, “These are amazing creatures, and they’re right at our doorstep. If we can’t make an ecosystem that’s fit to support them, then something is wrong with us.”
In 2000, based on census data from Ken’s organization, an environmental group requisitioned a population viability analysis (PDF 354 kb) for the orcas, supporting a petition to list the Southern Residents under the federal Endangered Species Act. (The population was listed as “endangered” in 2005.) The analysis concluded, based on current trends, that the whales would be extinct within 300 years — and that time period was considered optimistic, given specific social characteristics of the whales (Kitsap Sun, Nov. 16, 2000).
More recently, Robert Lacey of Chicago Zoological Society worked with Ken and others to produce a new population viability analysis with various assumptions about future conditions.
“The population is fragile, with no growth projected under current conditions, and decline expected if new or increased threats are imposed…,” the report says. “Prey limitation is the most important factor affecting population growth. However, to meet recovery targets through prey management alone, Chinook abundance would have to be sustained near the highest levels since the 1970s.
“The most optimistic mitigation of noise and contaminants would make the difference between a declining and increasing population, but would be insufficient to reach recovery targets. Reducing acoustic disturbance by 50% combined with increasing Chinook by 15% would allow the population to reach 2.3% growth.”
Extinction is very real
In 2017, Ken told me that it is time for people to face the prospect of that the Southern Residents may go extinct, a harsh but realistic future. This issue had been creeping up on me, but it’s something that is hard to face. The risk of extinction weighed heavily on Ken, who had a clear sense for the population dynamics and actual probabilities of survival.
We had come through a brief optimistic period that some called the “baby boom,” in which eight orca calves had been born in a year. Ken related this to an upturn in salmon runs during their prenatal period. But within two years, three of the six calves born in J pod were reported missing and presumed dead. Some called it a “baby bust.” Meanwhile, two orca moms — 23-year-old Polaris (J-28) and 42-year-old Samish (J14) — died near the end of 2016, followed by the loss of Granny (J-2), the revered matriarch of all the clans who held a special place in Ken’s memory. Doublestuf (J34), an 18-year-old male also died before the end of that year.
A growing number of studies revealed the importance of the food supply to the health and successful reproduction of the orcas. (Check out my 2016 article in the Encyclopedia of Puget Sound.) Ken was hoping to see a rapid turnaround in the salmon populations through government action.
“This population cannot survive without food year-round,” Ken wrote in a news release. “All indications … are pointing toward a predator population that is prey-limited and nonviable.”
Signs of decline, as he saw them, involved population size, birth rate, foraging behavior and body condition.
“Our government systems steeped in short-term competing financial motives are processing these whales and the salmon on which they depend to extinction,” he wrote. “If something isn’t done to enhance the SRKW prey availability almost immediately …extinction of this charismatic resident population of killer whales is inevitable in the calculable future.”
I followed Ken’s declaration with a piece in my “Water Ways” blog, quoting experts, looking at relevant studies, and examining political realities.
By 2016, Ken had become a strong advocate for removal of four dams on the Snake River. Nine years earlier, in 2007, he had signed onto a petition with five other prominent killer whale scientists, all advocating dam removal, as described in The Christian Science Monitor.
“The science is clear that removing four federal dams on the lower Snake River is needed to avert extinction of the Snake’s four unique salmon populations,” the scientists wrote.
In October 2016, the death of a 23-year old orca mom named Polaris (J28) was especially heartbreaking. She was still nursing her 11-month-old son Dipper (J54) at the time of her death. Although Dipper’s sister and aunt did their best to care for the young orphan, no other lactating females moved in to provide milk, and so Dipper died too (Water Ways, Oct. 30, 2016).
During a waterfront press conference, Ken read a personally penned obituary for Polaris — and he came out stronger than ever for dam removal. (His speech comes about five minutes into this Facebook video of the news conference.)
“I get a little emotional about this,” Ken said during the event. “I’ve been trying to hold myself back and not speak out, but I see it now. I’ve seen enough dead whales. I know that none of us really want that. We want future generations to have the same beautiful background (in Puget Sound) with whales swimming by.”
Navy sonar and threats to whales
I was visiting the Center for Whale Research on San Juan Island during the spring of 2000, when Kelley asked me if I had heard about a sonar incident in the Bahamas. I had not heard anything, so I sat down on the porch with Ken to get the full story. It would be the first of many stories I would write about whales and sonar. Ken’s work with acoustic systems while serving in the Navy gave him a rare insight and a unique perspective on the dangers of high-intensity sound.
As I described in my first news story about the Bahamas event, a deafening noise echoed through the underwater canyons in the Bahamas on March 15, 2000, causing beaked whales to flee up onto dry land. These deep-diving whales, normally elusive and mysterious, don’t normally approach the shore, so it was a shock for Ken to see them lying on the beach.
“It was the first of a lifetime — a live stranding of a beaked whale,” Ken told me, describing the whale that came ashore near his house on Abaco Island, the base of his beaked whale research.
Ken and his crew rescued that whale and three other beaked whales that day by pushing them back out into the water. The next day, they followed reports of other stranded whales to obtain tissue samples from six dead beaked whales. (One more was later added to the list of dead whales.) Ken suspected that military exercises in the area were to blame, but the dead whales would eventually tell their own story.
Ken was a gentle fighter, with an exceptional impact. He spoke softly but with a force fueled by his painstaking scientific research and his unimpeachable integrity. He had uncommon courage, humility, and a passion for whales that was second to no one. — Joel Reynolds, Natural Resources Defense Council
Bleeding and bruising were found in and around their inner ears, but the whales but were otherwise in good health, reported Darlene Ketten of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, who quickly performed necropsies for the National Marine Fisheries Service.
Later, in 2003, sonar was implicated in the deaths of 10 beaked whales in the Canary Islands near Africa. In that case, an international team of scientists theorized that the sounds of sonar frightened the whales into surfacing, causing gas bubbles to burst from their tissues. The condition was likened to “the bends” in human divers who surface too quickly.
Concerns about the effects of sonar on killer whales, dolphins and other marine mammals continued to grow. In May of 2003, sonar from the Navy guided-missile destroyer USS Shoup seemed to cause a stampede of killer whales and dolphins in the San Juan Islands. The noise was so loud that whale watchers miles away from the ship were able to hear the sound pinging through the hulls of their boats, as I reported in the Kitsap Sun.
“They should have a regulation that prevents them from operating this equipment in confined waters,” Ken said at the time. “They have strict regulations about when they can turn on radar, but they don’t have rules about sonar.”
The Navy did issue special orders about operating sonar in Puget Sound. But an investigation, completed two years later, found that while the Shoup’s sonar was loud enough to affect the whales’ behavior, it was not loud enough to cause permanent, or even temporary, hearing loss, as I reported in the Kitsap Sun.
When I called Ken for a response, he reacted quickly and bluntly, saying the Navy missed the most important part of his concern.
“The thing that gripes me about this whole subject,” he said, “is that the argument has been drafted in the form of whether there is hearing damage. It’s like it’s an industrial job problem — disregarding the observed fact that these animals are fleeing from sources of sound. They are trying to get away, and they are stranding and dying. It is irrelevant whether they had hearing loss if they are dead.”
In 2005, the Natural Resources Defense Council, led by attorney Joel Reynolds, sued in federal court to compel the Navy to take greater precautions in its use of sonar. Over the next 10 years, the case went through temporary settlements, new legal challenges and constitutional conflicts. Finally, in an out-of-court settlement in 2015, the Navy agreed to avoid sonar use in significant foraging areas in California and Hawaii and to take other measures to reduce the use of sonar around marine mammals (Water Ways, Sept. 17, 2015).
As of today, “the Navy’s environmental review, planning and mitigation for sonar exercises have been significantly improved,” Joel told me in an email. “Yet there is more that can and, under the law, should be done.”
Much of this story is told in an engaging book “War of the Whales” by Joshua Horwitz, who weaves together well-told biographies of both Ken Balcomb and Joel Reynolds along with the Navy’s side of the story. I interviewed the author and provided my take on the book, which Ken himself agreed was thorough and accurate, perhaps to a fault.
“He (Josh Horwitz) kept asking over and over the same questions,” Ken told me, somewhat amused when I asked him about the book. “I didn’t know if he had confused notes or what.”
After Ken’s death, I asked Joel for a comment, knowing that the two had spent much time together, particularly as Joel learned about the technical aspects of whales and sonar in preparation for his legal arguments.
“Ken was a gentle fighter, with an exceptional impact,” Joel wrote in an email. “He spoke softly but with a force fueled by his painstaking scientific research and his unimpeachable integrity. He had uncommon courage, humility, and a passion for whales that was second to no one.
“He forced the U.S. Navy to concede the harm to marine mammals caused by its high intensity active sonar,” he added, “and more than any single individual he elevated that harm from a military secret to an issue of global environmental concern.”
Springer here, Luna there
In early 2002, I called Ken to ask what he thought about reports (Orca Network) of a young orca wandering through the waters near Vashon Island, often hanging out in the ferry lanes. Ken had been out with researcher Mark Sears, based in in West Seattle. From Mark’s small boat, Ken was able to get a general assessment of the whale’s physical shape, which included a severe skin condition, and to make recordings of her vocalizations.
At the time, nobody knew what to make of the situation. A lone orca away from its family was not something that experts had experienced. As I discussed the situation with Ken, he dropped another giant surprise on me. He told me that another young orca had been hanging out alone in Nootka Sound along the northwest side of Vancouver Island in Canada.
Both whales were soon identified, and both were far away from their homes, almost as if they had traded places. Needless to say, this was big news, and it started a new round of adventures. Springer (A73) — the one found in Puget Sound — was a two-year-old Northern Resident killer whale from British Columbia and Southeast Alaska. Luna (L98) — the one found in Nootka Sound — was a Southern Resident from our area and about the same age. Luna was one of the whales presumed dead during the boom-and-bust period reported the year before.
In fact, Luna had been staying in Nootka Sound since July 2001 and was known to local residents in the town of Gold River. Whale experts with Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans eventually arrived, and, with the help of Ken and his associates, identified Luna that November. Out of concern for Luna’s welfare, they did not say anything until January 2002 — when Springer was found in Puget Sound. Luna’s reappearance was a joyous occasion, considering that he had been on the list of the dead.
Ken became an adviser to government officials in the treatment of both whales and in discussions about rescues to get them back with their families. Luna’s mother was still alive. Springer’s mother was deceased, but close relatives, including her grandmother and several cousins, were still around.
Separate stories of Springer and Luna were told in a multitude of newspaper and magazine articles, even books and movies. It would be hard to describe all the scientific haggling, political intrigue and excitement that surrounded these two young whales.