Modeling

Many types and classes of models have been developed and applied to parts or all of the Salish Sea ecosystem including efforts to model impacts of climate change, assess the implications of alternative urban growth patterns and understand water circulation patterns and nutrient loading. Models in this case can refer to physical or mathematical representations of the ecosystem or components of the ecosystem including human impacts.

— Source: Puget Sound Science Review

Overview

It’s hard to overstate the importance of mathematical models to science. Models show how planets move and how diseases spread. They track the paths of hurricanes and the future of climate change. Models allow scientists to look at systems or scenarios that they could never view otherwise. Increasingly, mathematical models are also helping scientists understand Puget Sound. In this series of articles, we look at some of the ways that models are being used in ecosystem recovery efforts. We start with the basics. What are mathematical models and which types are most common?

Weather map of the northwestern United States.

Related Articles

Many types of computer models are helping researchers study the health of Puget Sound. Bayesian network models are used to examine the probabilities that certain actions will take place within the ecosystem.

The Ecopath model, designed to describe the flow of energy through a food web, as evolved since it was first developed in the early 1980s in Hawaii. This article is part of a series focused on different models and their uses within the Puget Sound ecosystem.

The three-dimensional Atlantis model can represent physical, chemical and biological processes and can incorporate direct human involvement, such as fisheries management, habitat improvements and economic outcomes. It has been used to study the food web to determine whether salmon in Puget Sound are more threatened by predators or by the lack of a stable food supply and to evaluate specific recovery actions to help the endangered Southern Resident killer whales.

Biologist and science writer Eric Wagner recently returned from a trip to observe pigeon guillemots on Protection Island. He wonders: How much do we really know about the health of seemingly abundant bird populations?

The marine heat wave that struck the Pacific Ocean in late 2013 also caused large changes in temperature in the Salish Sea, but scientists are still puzzling over the impacts of those changes on Puget Sound's food web. The so-called "blob" of warmer than average water was thought to have increased the production of plankton, which potentially benefits creatures like herring and salmon that feed on the tiny organisms. A new paper in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science calls that interpretation into question, pointing to a computer model that links the cause to higher-than-normal river flows in the region.   

The Salish Sea Model is a computer model used to predict spatial and temporal patterns related to water circulation in the Salish Sea. It was developed at the United States Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory with funding from the Environmental Protection Agency. It is housed at the University of Washington Center for Urban Waters which is affiliated with the Encyclopedia of Puget Sound.